WASHINGTON—The history of most nations and of most individuals, the philosophers tell us, is told in the story of lost opportunities, and those who are supposed to know the facts tell me that’s the story of the young Shah of Iran. If he muffs this one, civilization is the loser.

TROUBLE IN IRAN— What will come of this latest episode—his threat to leave the country, followed by a change of heart and plans and the customary street fighting — I’m in no position to state, but the experts here say that the young Shah and his country, as well, both had their opportunity a year or so ago and could have saved themselves and the world a lot of headaches. And those of us who met the young Shah during his visit to the United States shortly after the war are not particularly surprised. [1949] He happened to be suffering from an acute outbreak of civilized nobility just at the moment when what was needed was a reversion to ruthlessness. Had he been willing to seize the opportunity which was offered and taken a firm grip on the government, much of the trouble in which he and his country have found themselves might well have been averted.

MOSSADEGH— The man who is causing Iran’s trouble is the swooning Premier Mohammed Mossadegh, who sways his fanatic followers by sobbing, shouting, swooning and taking to his bed. Right at this time what Iran needs — they tell me — is not a swooner, not a nice guy like the Shah, but a businesslike boss like the present Shah’s father. The present dynasty in Iran is just one generation old. The present Shah’s father, a military man, got tired of the sort of mismanagement that was going on, staged an uprising and set himself up as ruler. [Reza Shah Pahlavi] He established peace. Meanwhile he sent his son to school over in Europe and the young man returned to Iran full of the desire to do something for his country. [Mohammad Reza Pahlavi] He was popular, as an individual, and was considered a shining example of an enlightened ruler through his willingness to try to do something for his people.

UPRISING— The critical moment in Iran’s history came when Mossadegh came to power and proceeded to abrogate the Iranian agreement with the British oil interests who, regardless of what they may have been taking out of the country, were also providing it with its only real income. Mossadegh, in leading the expropriation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Co., was undoubtedly expressing the will of the people, but once he had the company he didn’t know what to do with it. There was nobody in Iran capable of operating the oil industry and Mossadegh is incapable of pulling himself together long enough to make a reasonable deal with somebody else to run it. He seems capable of whipping his followers into a fine frenzy of destructiveness but incapable of leading them on to anything worth while.

HISTORY— Offhand I don’t remember the number of occasions on which careful and painstaking negotiations have come right up to the point of a deal which would reimburse the British for their investment and would, at the same time, preserve the Iranian honor and restore Iranian finances. The outcome has invariably been the same — at the last moment Mossadegh has gone into his act and between swoons has broken off negotiations. In all of this madness the young Shah has sat back, anxious to prove that he is what we frequently refer to as a “democratic ruler” who didn’t want to interfere. The occasion on which, they tell me, the Shah had a chance to legally restore some sort of sanity to his government and to his country came when the Iranian Parliament tossed Mossadegh out in disgust and elected a chap named Qavam to take his place.

[Mossadegh resigned over control of the military, no one “tossed him out”. Ahmad Ghavam was appointed to replace him, but popular rebellion soon led Mossadegh to be reinstated as Premier.]

CRISIS— That was the moment. Mossadegh and his followers were going to stage a big uprising, of course, and people were bound to be killed. All that was required — and the Shah was so informed — was for him to have the army back the government of Qavam and there would be orderliness and at least some chance of stability. But the Shah, they say, didn’t want to be held responsible for bloodshed. Result — the army did nothing, Mossadegh’s followers rioted. There was bloodshed anyway, the rioters chased Qavam out of the country, reinstated Mossadegh and Iran reverted to national insanity as a policy. That’s what they tell me! [Ghavam fell but did not leave Iran.]

Hear Bill Henry, Monday through Friday, KHJ, 6:55 p.m.